Category Archives: Obama

It’s Clinton Versus Obama as Edwards Exits Presidential Race

Posted on January 30th, 2008 | Comments Off on It’s Clinton Versus Obama as Edwards Exits Presidential Race

Suddenly there were only two. John Edwards is ending his long campaign to be President. This heightens the suspense as Super Tuesday next week becomes a head to head match of Hillary Clinton versus Barack Obama.

Some 40% of the delegates will be decided next week as 20 states hold primaries and caucuses. Some states will be pivotal – like California and New York which have large numbers of delegates at stake.

John Edwards brought a strong voice to his campaign to speak for ending poverty in America and getting public control back from corporate America’s domination of our government under the Bush Republicans.

Edwards called both Obama and Clinton to tell them of his decision and to urge that they include adressing poverty in their campaigns.

Edwards is flying to New Orleans where he will be making a major speech later today. He is not going to endorse another candidate at this point.

Who benefits most by Edwards leaving the race. The Fix notes that polling in Florida leave the issue a tossup:

“Exit polling conducted yesterday in Florida suggests that Edwards supporters are equally inclined to back Obama and Clinton. Forty seven percent of Edwards backers in Florida said they would be “satisfied” with Clinton as the nominee
with 13 percent saying they would be “very satisfied”. A similar 47 percent said they would be “satisfied” with Obama as the party’s standard bearer with 19 percent saying they would be “very satisfied”. Those trends were affirmed by exit poll data from South Carolina’s primary on Jan. 26 as more than six in 10 Edwards supporters said they would be satisfied with either Clinton or Obama as the nominee.”

see also Washington Post -“John Edwards to Quit Presidential Race“

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McCain and Clinton Win Florida Primary

Posted on January 30th, 2008 | Comments Off on McCain and Clinton Win Florida Primary

The big loser in the Florida Primary Vote is Rudy Giuliani who is coming in a tepid third place in the Republican Primary. McCain is receiving 36% of the vote to Romney at 31% to Giuliani at 15% and Huckabee at 13%. Florida is a winner take all state for the Republicans and McCain is picking up 57 delegates. This is with 94% of the vote counted.

Because Florida moved it’s Primary early against the Democratic Party rules no delegates are being awarded now although that could change at the convention. Meanwhile, despite the Democratic candidates pledge to not campaign in Florida, their names were still on the ballot and Hillary Clinton is decisively beating Obama and Edwards. She has 49.5% of the votes to Obama’s 32.9% to Edwards 14.4%.

So what does Clinton’s win in Florida mean?

Now the Democratic politically correct thing to say is that Clinton’s win doesn’t count but Obama assumes that at his peril. The media likewise discounts it. While the delegates aren’t there now, Clinton still won the vote and I believe the win is as significant as Obama’s win in South Carolina.

Voters turned out and made a choice. With national media attention and coverage of the campaigns these days, voters were well aware of who they were voting for, whether the candidates physically campaigned in the state or not.

The same goes for the Michigan Primary. Clinton’s name was on the ballot there, while Obama and Edwards were not. The national party withdrew the delegates from Michigan because they went early like Florida did. But voters had a choice and they voted. If they choose Obama or Edwards instead of Clinton, they had to vote uncommitted. Clinton won 55.3% of the Michigan Democratic vote while uncommitted received 40%.

So by my calculation, Clinton has won the vote in four states – New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada and Florida. Obama has won the vote in Iowa and South Carolina. Collectively Clinton has garnered more votes than Obama in total. A rough estimate is that Clinton has received about 1.54 million votes total to Obama’s 1.25 million votes. This is a ballpark figure only – an estimate based on a couple of extrapolations from delegate counts in Iowa and Nevada and giving Obama 2/3 of the uncommitted vote in Michigan.

All this is to say that its a close race and if votes split similarly on February 5th, and delegates likewise, we’re in for the long haul. Both candidates are running hard and no one has scored a knockout punch yet in the Democrat’s race. February 5th could change all that since Super Tuesday has over 20 states voting and over 40% of the total delegates at stake for both parties.

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The Kennedys Enter the Presidential Race

Posted on January 28th, 2008 | Comments Off on The Kennedys Enter the Presidential Race

The Kennedy Clan has entered the fray for Obama and Clinton. Word is that Senator Edward Kennedy is going to endorse Barack Obama on Monday. And the Sunday New York Times carried an op-ed piece by Caroline Kennedy endorsing Obama also.

Senator Kennedy’s endorsement is a rebuke to the Clintons. Bill Clinton is reported to have urged Senator Kennedy to stay neutral.

Meanwhile Hillary Clinton issued a statement from Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, the former Lt Governor of Maryland and daughter of Robert Kennedy, reiterating her reasons for supporting Senator Clinton. Clinton also has received the endorsement of Robert F Kennedy, Jr.

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Obama Win in South Carolina Impressive but Not Surprising

Posted on January 28th, 2008 | 1 comment

Senator Barack Obama’s win Saturday in the South Carolina Democratic Primary helps boost his campaign for President. But the big prize still remains all the primaries and caucuses voting on Super Tuesday Feb 5, 2008. Some 22 states will vote including large ones like California and New York. And the outcome is far from certain.

South Carolina Democratic Primary Voting Results:

Obama 295,214 (55.4%)
Clinton 141,217 (26.5%)
Edwards 93,576 (17.6%)

The problem with the hodgepodge of voting so far is that each state has had different advantages to each candidate. South Carolina’s uniqueness to Obama was that 55% of the Democratic turnout was black voters of whom 78% voted for Obama and 19% for Clinton and 2% for Edwards.

According to the US Census, South Carolina comes in 5th in black population at 29%. Mississippi ranks 1st with 37.1%, Louisiana 2nd with 31.7% , Georgia 3rd with 29.9% and Maryland 4th at 29.5%.

As noted in a comment thread on American Renaissance, for Obama to win in November he must be the white candidate. Blacks will vote Democratic when they vote since there is nothing the Republicans have to offer them. Remember the snub the Republican Presidential candidates McCain, Giuliani and Romney gave Travis Smiley and PBS when they ducked a debate at Morgan State College.

Obama will not be taking votes away from Republicans, but even a higher turnout of black voters will not be decisive if he doesn’t draw significantly from all racial groups, including whites.

This is not to say Democrats can take the black vote for granted but further divisiveness among the candidates that accentuate racial differences will not help Clinton in November if she wins the nomination but blacks aren’t motivated to vote. Likewise Obama can not only be the black candidate if he hopes to win.

Population wise, for example, Hispanics comprise the same percentage in the population, 13%, as do blacks. And Clinton won Nevada with the help of Hispanic voters.

This all goes to say the race is far from over – with a lot more to come. Feb 5, 2008 looms now as a major sorting out day for this race.

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Nevada Democrats Hide Vote Count by Only Releasing Delegate Count

Posted on January 20th, 2008 | Comments Off on Nevada Democrats Hide Vote Count by Only Releasing Delegate Count

(Revised Headline and text – original story confused delegate count and vote totals..)

Nevada has some 397,247 registered Democrats according to the Nevada Secretary of State. The Nevada Democratic Party now reports that some 115,800 Democrats participated in the caucuses.

This represents a turnout of 29% of registered Nevada Democrats. The Iowa caucuses saw a turnout of 39.5% of its registered Democrats.

My initial reporting of the Nevada Democratic turnout was way off. The problem was that the news reports had the numbers listed for Republican turnout as the actual vote counts for each candidate. The Democrats unfortunately do not release the actual vote totals for each candidate as the Republicans do yet the results were listed side by side.

As the Washington Post notes:

The Nevada Democratic Party is not reporting votes for its Jan. 19 caucuses. Instead, the party will only release the number of county delegates won by each presidential candidate (or “Uncommitted”). This is the data being collected by the Associated Press and displayed on washingtonpost.com. There will be at least 10,446 delegates to the county conventions in the state’s 17 counties. (More information here.)
On the Republican side, the party caucuses are essentially a straw poll. Thus, the votes reported by the party and collected by AP are actual votes. (More information here.)

The Democrats reporting actually amounts to secrecy and distortion; in only releasing delegates elected for each candidates the actual votes are hidden from the general public. They did the same thing in the Iowa caucus.

At latest count, according to the NY Times , Hillary Clinton received 5,355 county delegates for 50.7% of the Democratic delegates.

Barack Obama received 4,773 delegates for 45.12% of the county Democratic delegates elected.

John Edwards only received 396 county delegates for 3.8% of the Democratic delegate vote cast.

Confusion has emerged regarding how many national delegates are actually assigned to Clinton and Obama, with Obama claiming he won 13 to Clinton’s 12., despite Clinton winning more county delegates. And because the Nevada Democrats have not released the actual vote number by all the caucus attendees we can only guess at this based on the proportion of county delegates each candidate won.

I was not the only one confused trying to interpret the numbers – it seems that in reality the number of national delegates Clinton and Obama will get are only estimates and no final number is possible until the next convention. As reported by First read at msn.nbc

“The Nevada Democratic Party just issued this clarification (emphasis is ours): “No national convention delegates were awarded. That said, if the delegate preferences remain unchanged between now and April 2008, the calculations of national convention delegates being circulated by the Associated Press are correct. We look forward to our county and state conventions where we will choose the delegates for the nominee that Nevadans support.”

If its confusing to you consider this explanation from the New York Times:

“On Jan. 19, party caucuses meet in each precinct to choose delegates to county conventions. The delegates selected are not bound to any candidate. At the county conventions on Feb. 23, delegates to the state convention are chosen. They are not bound to any candidate. The state convention is April 18-20, during which delegates choose 25 of the 33 delegates to the national convention. Sixteen of the 25 delegates are allocated proportionally to presidential candidates based on the support for the candidates in each of the state’s three Congressional districts. Nine delegates are allocated to candidates based on the support among all of the delegates attending the convention. The remaining eight unpledged delegates are chosen from party leaders.”

It is so much easier to determine the vote results from Presidential Primaries. There is just plain reporting of actual votes, not recalculations based on delegates chosen and final commitments made at some later date based on participation at a later caucus.

Presidential Primaries also have higher voter participation. The New Hampshire Presidential Primary on January 8, 2008 saw a total voter turnout rate of 62%. New Hampshire allowed independents to vote in either the Republican or Democratic Primary. The Group News Blog reported that New Hampshire has some 850,836 registered voters. 287,322 voters voted Democratic and 238,548 voted Republican. The Democrats received 55% of the vote and Republicans 45%.

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Hillary Clinton Tops Barrack Obama in Nevada

Posted on January 19th, 2008 | Comments Off on Hillary Clinton Tops Barrack Obama in Nevada

With 90% of the caucuses reporting, Democratic voters in Nevada have given Hillary Clinton another win. Barrack Obama came in second with John Edwards a distant third. This is the third state Clinton has won, if you include the vote in Michigan, where the candidates did not campaign .

Hillary Rodham Clinton……….5,308 delegates…….. 50.8%

Barack Obama ……………………4711 delegates ……… 45.1%

John Edwards………………………. 393 delegates ……….. 3.8 %

Uncommitted…………………………. 31 delegates ……….. 0.3%

Dennis J. Kucinich …………………….5 delegates …………0.0 %

90% reporting Updated 6:08 PM ET Results from politics.nytimes.com.

As in Iowa, Demorats are not releasing actual vote totals for candidates but only releasing the final delegates elected at the precinct level. This distorts the actual vote count each candidate received. Meanwhile the Republicans are releasing the actual vote totals. It seems like the Democrats are not being open on the actual results and are trying to manipulate the results by only partially reporting them.

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Bill Richardson Exiting Presidential Race

Posted on January 10th, 2008 | Comments Off on Bill Richardson Exiting Presidential Race

After an initial report by the Associated Press , both CNN and NBC News have confirmed that New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson will announce on Thursday that he is ending his campaign to be President. He finished 4th in Iowa with 2% of the Democratic vote and 4th in New Hampshire with 5% of the Democratic vote.

Barrack Obama won the Iowa caucus and Hillary Clinton won the New Hampshire Primary. John Edwards finished second in Iowa and third in New Hampshire. Richardson really has little choice but to face reality – he lacks significant voter support and money.

Richardson had a lot to offer to Democrats and represented part of a strong field of contenders for the Democratic nomination this year. He joined Hillary Clinton in offering a long record of public service, including Congress, Secretary of Energy, Ambassador to the UN and 2 term Governor. As a Hispanic he contributed to the diversity of Democratic candidates running this year.

Two other Democrats dropped out after the Iowa Caucucs – Senator Joe Biden and Senator Chris Dodd. Any of these three candidates could show up in the Administration of the next Democratic President – whether it be Obama, Clinton or long shot Edwards. Edward’s chances look slim at this point. He is hopping for a strong finish in South Carolina but momentum and money and votes are with Clinton and Obama.

After 8 years of Bush, voters appear ready to install a Democrat as our next President. Democrats are ready to move to the future and address the many problems facing America that Bush and the Republican Congress ignored. Meanwhile the Republican candidates for President want to return to the past and support most of the policies of Bush.

Republican talk of change is a false illusion because the Republican candidates do not represent real change – they merely want to return to old tired policies of more tax cuts for the rich, more handouts for corporations, more support for the deadly oil and coal industry contributing to global warming, more support for military solutions to world problems and free market economic policies that brought us ENRON and the mortgage crisis and increasing income disparity between the very wealthy and the rest of us.

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Hillary Clinton Wins in New Hampshire Despite Polls to the Contrary

Posted on January 9th, 2008 | Comments Off on Hillary Clinton Wins in New Hampshire Despite Polls to the Contrary

Hillary Clinton has continued the family tradition of the comeback kid – beating Barrack Obama in the New Hampshire Primary tonight. With 85% of the vote tallied, Hillary Clinton has a lead of 39% (94,999 votes) to Barrack Obama’s 37% (88,903 votes). Clinton has been declared the winner. source NY Times.

MSNBC reports that with 88% of the vote counted, Clinton has 99,590 votes (39%) to Obama’s 92,749 votes (36%).

CBS NEWS reports that with 268 of 301 precincts the following:

Hillary Clinton 99,863 (39%)
Barrack Obama 93,033 (37%)
John Edwards 43,100 (17%)
Bill Richardson 11,656 (5%)

Reaction in the media after many of them wrote her off and she trailed by as much as 10% in the polls is interesting.

NY Times “Clinton Stuns Obama”

Seattle Times “Clinton, McCain Pull off Upsets in New Hampshire”

Seattle PI “Clinton and McCain pull off upsets in NH”

NPR “Clinton Surprises Obama in Tight Democratic Race”

PBS “Clinton’s New Hampshire Win Defies Predictions, McCain Makes Comeback”

Next up is the Democrats are :

January 15, 2008 Michigan Primary

January 19, 2008 Nevada Caucus

Jan 26, 2008 South Carolina Primary

January 29, 2008 Florida Primary

All this leads up to Super Tuesday when some 1688 delegates will be selected. Seventeen primaries will be held: Alabama, American Samoa, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Democrats Abroad, Georgia, Illinois, Massachusetts, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Texas, and Utah. Seven states will hold caucuses: Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Minnesota, New Mexico, and North Dakota.

If the candidates thought Iowa and New Hampshire were hectic, they and the public are in for a wild ride. What has happened so far is a small prelude to Super Tuesday Feb 5, 2008.

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Clinton Winning in New Hampshire Primary

Posted on January 9th, 2008 | 1 comment

With 63% of the vote counted Senator Hillary Clinton still leads Senator Barrack Obama by 39% to 36%. Results posted on the NY Times website at 7:23 PM Pacific Time show the same margin separating the candidates as was posted at 6:23 PM Pacific Time with 39% of the votes counted..

Hillary Clinton …….65,129 (39%)
Barrack Obama ….60,766 (36%)
John Edwards …….28,066 (17%)
Bill Richardson …….7,952 (5%)

Click on the NY Times website above to see the most current results.

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Clinton Leading Obama in Early New Hampshire Results

Posted on January 9th, 2008 | Comments Off on Clinton Leading Obama in Early New Hampshire Results

With 39% of the votes being reported, the New York Times reports that Senator Clinton is leading Senator Obama by 39% to 36%. Clinton has 37,037 votes to Obama’s 34,196. John Edwards is in third with 17% (15,715 votes). Richardson has 5% (4,399 votes).

It is still too early to call what has become a tight race and a potential comeback for Hillary Clinton. These results are as reported at 9:23 PM ET or 6:23 PM Pacific Time.

Senator John McCain has been called the winner over Mitt Romney. McCain has 37% (26,158 votes) to Romney’s 30% (20,792). Huckabee has 12%, Giuliani 9%, and Paul 8%.

See more complete results at NY Times as they are updated.

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